Conditions for Bitcoin to Rise to $80,000

1. Economy: Two Interest Rate Cuts + Continuous Global Stimulus Measures

The primary reason people are attracted to Bitcoin is quite simple: you do not trust the government and its currency. This idea gave birth to Bitcoin in 2008 and remains a strong driving force for cryptocurrencies to this day. It is widely accepted, even BlackRock uses it in Bitcoin's marketing propaganda.

This is why, despite the growing US economy, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points has led to an increase in cryptocurrencies; it is also why cryptocurrencies surged significantly after China launched a 2 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan at the end of September.

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The market is eager for more stimulus measures. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to further relax its policy by an additional 50 basis points before the end of the year, and China is also expected to introduce more fiscal stimulus measures.

If both are realized simultaneously, it is estimated that we will witness a rebound in the fourth quarter. If not, I believe that disappointment may put pressure on the market.

2. Cryptocurrency: No Major Negative Surprises

To achieve a new high of $80,000, the last thing we need to do is to ensure a period without any major surprises. No major hacking attacks. No large-scale new lawsuits. No previously locked tokens suddenly entering the market.Unfortunately, the history of cryptocurrencies is filled with countless such surprises. In the past few quarters, previously locked Bitcoin has been released from bankrupt exchanges like Mt. Gox and government vaults, keeping us in a state of range-bound volatility.

If we can navigate through the end of this year without similar shocks, it is anticipated that we will hit new all-time highs and possibly surpass them.

What else can be of assistance? Altcoins

Some Bitcoin users might despise me for saying this, but a broader rebound in cryptocurrencies will help fulfill this prediction.

It needs to be clear: Bitcoin's long-term success does not require Ethereum, Solana, or new altcoins. In fact, it is often harmed by the shenanigans in the altcoin space. However, if we are to achieve a comprehensive short-term rally—say, reaching $100,000 in just a few months—then having some pro-crypto sentiment sweep through the market would be helpful.

The last period of prolonged volatility for Bitcoin was from June 2019 to June 2020, when Bitcoin traded within a narrow range of $8,000 to $10,000 (except for a brief dip during the COVID-19 pandemic). By the late summer of 2020, Bitcoin began to rise and headed straight for $60,000. Much of this was driven by stimulus measures during the pandemic, but some of it was (for lack of a better term) sentiment. Specifically, the "DeFi Summer" of 2020 gave investors a reason to be excited about cryptocurrencies again, and some of that animal spirit spilled over into Bitcoin.

This year, such animal spirits have been scarce outside of Bitcoin. But I can almost see them rising in areas like stablecoins, whose AUM is hitting new highs; new high-throughput blockchains, with communities rallying around projects like Sui, Aptos, and Monad; and innovative projects like Babylon, which is exploring how Bitcoin investors can benefit from staking. The strong and sustained momentum in these areas will enhance the melt-up scenario.

Concluding RemarksIt's worth remembering that Bitcoin has had a pretty good year so far. It's one of the best-performing assets globally, with a 49% increase, and its news flow is very strong. We have seen the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and their emergence as the best-performing ETFs ever. We have also witnessed widespread institutional adoption, with 60% of large hedge funds currently holding Bitcoin. Additionally, Bitcoin has entered mainstream political discourse in ways that were unimaginable just a few years ago. Two years ago, FTX was collapsing, and Sam Bankman-Fried was making headlines; today, Larry Fink is on television discussing Bitcoin taking over the world.

All of this suggests that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 (or even more) next year, regardless of how the news develops. However, if we want to achieve this goal before the end of the year, the aforementioned script might be helpful.