In the past two days, a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has stirred the market, causing the U.S. Dollar Index to stop falling and rebound, and the offshore yuan to depreciate sharply to nearly 7.1%. Consequently, some people are worried whether the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in November, and whether the A-share bull market is still in place?

Originally, on Friday, October 4th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the non-farm employment report for September, showing that the non-farm employment population increased by 254,000 people in September, far exceeding the expected 150,000 people and significantly exceeding expectations, setting the largest increase since March this year.

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Regarding this employment report, whether it will affect the A-share bull market, pay attention to three points:

1. This time, the bull market was initiated through a package of economic stimulus encouragement plans, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was just the "catalyst," not the decisive factor.

The new policy on September 24th and a series of subsequent measures are all aimed at solving temporary economic difficulties. Even if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, measures such as lowering interest rates and reserve requirements, reducing interest rates on existing housing loans, and stimulating domestic demand will still be carried out. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut provides just the external conditions.

Moreover, with the release of the non-farm data in September, the market still expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which is consistent with the views expressed by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in his recent speech. As for not cutting interest rates, it is feared that the U.S. banking system would not be able to withstand it. Warren Buffett has been aggressively reducing his holdings in U.S. banks, and U.S. banks have inexplicably staged a "power outage incident." What the truth is, the Federal Reserve must know.

2. The release of the September non-farm employment data is really too timely. It coincides with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the introduction of "Chinese-style quantitative easing," a booming stock market, and international capital flowing towards Chinese assets.

Capital is like water; when there is more in one pool, there will be less in another. As international capital flows to China, problems will arise in the U.S. financial market. November is also the U.S. election month, and some incidents must occur, so a "far exceeding expectations" non-farm employment report was born in time. That's why Lao Niu said it was really "too timely"!

3. Whether the "strong" September non-farm data belongs to "expectation management" still needs to be confirmed. As we all know, the upward and downward revisions of U.S. non-farm data are a common occurrence. For example, in August 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor revised the non-farm employment data from April 2023 to March 2024, and the revised number of jobs was 818,000 less than initially reported. Such a large "revision" is also too unreliable.Industry data shows that restaurants and bars were the sectors with the most new jobs added in September, with the hotel and catering industry adding 69,000 positions. The total non-farm employment population increased by 254,000 in September, with restaurants and bars accounting for 27.17% of that increase. Moreover, the average number of new positions added in the hotel and catering industry over the past 12 months was only 14,000, while the number of new positions added in September was nearly five times the average. It is evident that not only is the quality of employment low, but the data is also abnormal, suggesting that significant downward revisions may be necessary in the future.

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the financial battle has shifted, but the competition between China and the United States will not stop. We must be clear about the United States' "art of expectation management," which is full of illusions and deceptions, to prevent being "bewitched by the flowers." It is most important to坚持以我为主, which means to focus on ourselves, and to do our own work well.